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say the slow down in nonfarm payrolls will reflect the effect of sandy. joining us this hour is bank of america merrill lynch global research senior research economist michelle mire and we'll talk through everything that's been happening through jobs and what to expect. but first, there is a developing story. an earthquake off the northeast coast of japan triggered a tsunami warning. the warning has been lifted, but it was a 7.3 quake. so far no reports of any injuries or damage. it was for the same area devastated by an earthquake and tsunami back in march of last year. we will continue to bring you any developments. in the meantime, steve has some of the morning's top other stories. >> let's start with the markets. asian stocks rallying to 2012 highs overnight. the nikkei edging lower after hitting a se hitting hitting a seven month closing high yesterday. european trading, shares seem to be fwllat. bundesbank announced it had cut its growth outlook for the country. in the u.s., the nasdaq snapped its losing streak yesterday with its first gain in five days. the dow was on pace for
important jobs report of the century. this is a squirrelly one in part because we have the sandy effect in there and i think joe's right, there is going to be to an extent a sandy effect in there. i just want to show you first the claims chart. this is the chart we've been putting up every week since hurricane sandy came through and the pattern of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private sector. that's a big jobs -- it might be hurricane related, but it could also be cliff related. there's these two things just backing up what joe said, folks, we've got enough to worry about without the stuff that we could probably fix and move on, there's enough goin
here, sandy was terrible. that will subtract from growth. we also have the little twinkie strike which is something that everybody's worried about, so that will subtract. so when you net all those things out, you'll probably get a number closer to 90,000. but when you net those things out, you know in future months you'll get more growth. 2 pch 2.7, a lot was inventory based. so economic growth probably gets weaker. but as the rebuilding takes prar place, the strike resolved, no jobs no doubt. >> so in the meantime we go back above 8%? >> i think there's a chance that you can touch 8%, but i think you'll stay somewhere near the 8% range. >> if you had to make a prediction like i did, i had to make a prediction for where unemployment would be a year from now. i said somewhere in the 7s. >> i think by the end of next year you'll get a near somewhere in the neighborhood of 7.4, 7.5. still in the 7s. because again, we are going to glow next year something close to 2% and probably a little bit below that. that's not consistent with a huge deceleration of the unemployment rate. >> unless the
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